DJIA

open 10,468.82

close 10,674.38 up 208.44

day high 10,692.20

day low 10,468.59

today's volume 167,642,201

3mo avg. daily volume 234,069,632

DJTA

open 4,425.34

close 4,504.30 up 81.36

day high 4,505.97

day low4,425.34

today's volume 17,924.872

3mo avg. daily volume 23,077,711

Today's missive...

I love days like this... Days when someone, who doesn't understand the correlation between volume and pricing wonders why I still have a smug grin on my face.  I hope I'm a bigger man than to rub it in, but up days have half the volume as down days, and in today's case, it even had about half the volume of the 3 month average.  We've seen a few of these days.

If I were a betting man...

So who needs QE if the market continues to rise until elections?  Probably no one.  But there will be something, I'd bet on it.  I'm holding my long positions where they are, but a few things have been tempting me.

The two charts on the left show first, a pro-shares short fund on Lehman's 20+ year treasury, and below it, the US Dollar index.  What I find interesting is that as the dollar has been declining, the TBT has as well.  As we all know, the market has a remarkable way of discounting every piece of information available.  With the USD approaching it's 200dma and the shorts showing no interest whatsoever, on top of a Dow that HAS to stay up through elections, perhaps my QE predictions will prove incorrect... assuming RSI assumptions can defeat common sense predictions.

Volume still argues a decline in the Industrials which should require a bout of QE.  Perhaps short term QE causes a bump up in the USD as it may tinker with overnight rates and cause a short exodus into the wasteland that is the USD.  Hopefully, unlike Moses and his people, some from this generation will survive on more than just mana, and may end up in the promised land that is the bargain-basement liquidation-priced P/E and Q ratio's when no one else is interested.

I'm comfortable in my shorts and my gold positions, but if I were a betting man, I'd play a short term rise in the USD and then load the boat on the shorts coming into the winter.  As long as I have my working cash position, I don't care how long it would take as any good student of The Theory knows duration and extent are never known, just the trend.

I'm off to read Russell's daily, should be good things.  I'm curious to hear what he has to say about today.