Friday, July 30, 2010

DJIA
open 10,465.19
close 10,465.94 down 1.22
day high 10,507.19
day low 10,347.50
today's volume 208,159,136
3mo avg. daily volume 234,815,241
DJTA
open 4,413.90
close 4,422.94 up 7.92
day high 4,438.96
day low 4,321.86
today's volume 16,123,363
3mo avg. daily volume 23,184,041
 
A sharp open down but the market did manage to close back even.  Slightly more advancing than declining issues today, although not dramatic enough to warrant anything of note.  What we affectionately call "earnings season" is out of peoples minds and we're moving into the next two months of this quarter, being that it will end in an election, I see a great amount of uncertainty.  I keep coming back to thoughts on QE2 this fall...  I'll let the market hold it's breath however, me, I've got more interesting things to do than worry.
 
Have a nice weekend.
 
- slim

Numbers for 7.29.2010

DJIA
open 10,537.01
close 10,467.16 down 30.72
day high 10,584.99
day low10,387.39
today's volume202,113,198
3mo avg. daily volume 234,815,241
DJTA
open 4,415.02
close 4,415.02 down 5.30
day high 4,469.03
day low 4,362.51
today's volume 15,355,677
3mo avg. daily volume 23,184.041
 
I seem to find myself a day behind with the numbers... having to pop out of bed early before the websites I use reset themselves for the next day.  Since I did write a pretty long piece yesterday, I'll be stopping here.  Still expect to see a little mroe down movement today going into the weekend.  

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Premises, Laws, Rules...

... call them what you will... but how do the basic tenants of Dow Theory stack up today... Thanks to Rhea and Russell, here are the 10 principles of Dow Theory and my comments attached.  These were taken from Russell's book, "The Dow Theory Today" and although there is some of my own writing in here, for the sake of respect, assume all the following is direct copies.

Numbers for 7.28.2010

DJIA
open 10,537.01
close 10,497.88 down 39.81
day high 10,548.52
day low 10,463.22
today's volume 162,068,915
3mo avg. daily volume 234,691,415
DJTA
open4,438.18
close 4,420.32 down 3.18
day high 4,448.50
day low 4,392.03
today's volume 17,066,102
3mo avg. daily volume 23,299.333

Hello, my name is market... and I'm bored.  No one wants to play with me, my volume is almost half what the average has been...

Let's be honest here, uncertainty is never good for anything, and volume over the past month truly shows how uncertain the public is with our markets, our governments leadership, our whole system.  Have we reached the point where people are going to do something about it?  I don't know, but it is elections coming up so we will see.

Predictions for market activity on Thursday and Friday... If I were a betting man I'd put us down about 200 points going into the weekend.  Of course, whenever I'm betting, I'd be betting on the general sentiment of the public, what the traders choose to do with these numbers is beyond me.  Perhaps since we've had such good up movement this week, they'll try to juice it a little bit to entice a little more money out of the system.  

till tonight,

slim

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Numbers for 7.27.2010

DJIA
open 10,525.28
close 10,537.69 up 12.26
day high 10,578.33
day low 10,494.86
today's volume 180,548,659
3mo avg. daily volume 238,133,586
DJTA
open 4,482.48
close 4,423.50 down 58.59
day high 4,515.35
day low 4,416.64
today's volume 16,993,084
3mo avg. daily volume 23,627,552

Yahoo Finance shows today's advance/decline was slightly in favor of the declines on all trading markets.  Nominal gains for the Industrials and slight fall in the Transports.  This is still no-man's land... the only decisions to be made here, in my opinion, is averaging into the items I'd expect to see do well, not in the next 2 or 3 months, but the next year or two.

Numbers for 7.26.2010

DJIA
open 10,424.17
close 10,525.43 up 100.81
day high 10,526.79
day low 10,414.40
today's volume 178,815,615
3mo avg. daily volume 237,400,101
DJTA
open 4,370.99
close 4,482.09 up 112.38
day high 4,485.94
day low4,370.82
today's volume 20,620,987
3mo avg. daily volume 23,734,470

Please accept my apologies for missing my posts both Thursday and Friday.  Here are yesterdays close numbers.  I should be back on a normal schedule by this afternoon.  A necessary moment of prayer for the family of a close friend and a last minute trip to Denver for the Faith and Liberty 2010 conference made last week much shorter than I was expecting.  A wise woman I know once told me, "In life, you have to be like bamboo, bend, but don't break."  Everything this weekend was exactly as hoped, and I did have a great time (except of course for the drive, 6 hours both ways isn't terrible, but I have made that drive so many times in my life it tends to get monotonous).

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

DJIA
open 10,226.02
close 10,120 down 109.43
day high 10,265.54
day low10,065.50
today's volume 203,897,050
3mo avg. daily volume 237,447,005
DJTA
open 4,208.84
close 4,143.10 down 59.60
day high 4,249.12
day low 4,112.30
today's volume 20.705,782
3mo avg. daily volume 24,043,143
Today's Missive
Falling asleep at the wheel today, I was a little preoccupied getting ready for the upcoming weekend.  Never wanting to care too much about what the market does on the moment to moment basis (frankly not even wanting to care what it does on a daily basis except for what becomes cumulative and what shows momentum), I last checked prices around noon today, and was expecting a bit of a humdrum day... frankly something I don't recall in recent history, as most of our days have been fairly volatile throughout, generally starting with a early morning move and correction back that afternoon.  So about noon today when I checked last, I finally saw what appeared to be disinterest... ...when I finally got to checking the end of market hour, it obviously was a different story...

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

DJIA
open 10,151.48
close 10,229.96 up 75.53
day high10,236.40
day low 10,007.76
today's volume 194,405,988
3mo avg. daily volume 237,171,667

DJTA
open 4,127.20
close 4,202.70 up 71.43
day high 4,206.88
day low 4,054.10
today's volume18.309.758
3mo avg. daily volume 24,075,106
 
I suppose the only discrepancy I notice today is that Transports volume is much lower than it has been previously.  Other than that, exactly as expected for price moves compared to volume.  The up days are slowly decreasing in volume while the down days are up.  Sentiment remains uncertain, and uncertainty is rarely good.
 
As I discussed QE yesterday, I don't have a lot to add on the topic, although it remains on my mind.  Today saw dramatic volatility which remained down until early afternoon.  These are the days that test the stomach... or perhaps simply ones ability to not get lulled to sleep...

Monday, July 19, 2010

DJIA
open10,098.12
close 10,154.43 up 56.53
day high 10,187.28
day low 10,073.68
today's volume 176,966,763
3mo avg. daily volume 237,772,945

DJTA
open 4,119.44
close 4,131.27 up 12.27
day high 4,144.44
day low 4,059.79
today's volume 23,682,642
3mo avg. daily volume 24,097,598

Volume down, markets up... marginally... so nothing exciting to write about.  The only thing hot on the mind right now is QE.  Quantitative Easing is a fancy way of saying Monetizing Debt, which is of course a fancy way of saying Inflation... which is unfortunately no more than a fancy way of saying printing additional US Dollars without additional income, backing or tangible support of any kind... isn't it interesting how definitions of things change as the general public catches on.  I wonder what phrase will replace QE... I'm not clever enough to come up with one... perhaps that's a prerequisite for heading up the Federal Reserve Bank, being clever.


Friday, July 16, 2010

DJIA
open 10,356.20
close 10,097.90 down 261.41
day high 10,356.20
day low 10,079.58
today's volume 335,057,222
3mo avg. daily volume 238,390,369

DJTA
open 4,255.82
close 4,119.00 down 137.16
day high 4,256.49
day low 4,108.40
today's volume 25,265,505
3mo avg.daily volume 24,095,170

Now this is the type of volume and price moves I'm talking about!!  Although I hate to see these types of reactions, and again I must fall back and let the phrase "if I were a betting man"come pouring out of my mouth, I'd guess for a slight rebound Monday, but to watch the numbers decline next week as well.  Could July test the June lows?  We will see, and there's still 2 weeks left for them to do it in.  The black cross strikes again.

check this post from Jim Sinclair's site earlier this week

Please take 10 seconds and consider the ramifications of this.  This is not something that might happen, this is something that will happen as it has already been passed into law and involves EVERY purchase of EVERY thing, from bubble gum to cars and everything in between. 


My two questions are, A) what does this have to do with healthcare? and of course B) what on earth could the IRS possibly need this info for unless we're facing sever tax hikes?



Jim Sinclair : JS MineSet


Novice Politicking

Below is an article emailed to me through our research department at our company today... Bold and red emphasis is mine.  For some reason bureaucracy trumps free markets.  Who gets to decide what type of company "threatens" the economy, and whose definition of what economy is will be used?  This is right up there with the new reporting requirements for purchases made over $600.00 which was part of the Health Care Bill... what does me buying $601 worth of lumber at Home Depot have to do with Health Care, and why exactly will I be having to give my social security number to do so?  See the next article I'm posting today, a link to Jim Sinclair's website, JSMineSet.
 

Thursday, July 15, 2010

DJIA
open  10,367.10
close 10,359.31down 10,359.31
day high 10,378.98
day low 10,240.48
today's volume 206,506,632
3mo avg. daily volume 238,290,510

DJTA
open 4,256.16
close 4,256.16 down 21.26
day high 4,278.64
day low 4,185.57
today's volume 19,943,298
3mo avg.daily volume 24,229,375
A fair bit of trader volume today.  Big down movements first thing this morning, big up movements at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken a screenshot of my computer at about 3:15 E.T. this afternoon.  The above numbers I'm usually quoting come from cnnmoney.com.  I don't know how often they update throughout the day, but at 1:15 my time today (mountain time) I noticed daily volume was around 72 million.  It finished at over 200 million.  Here's a daily chart from the same site.  If I cared enough on the dailies, I'd go double check end of day earnings reports, but hopes and dreams always smell a little funny...


The below chart kind of looks like the valley I live in in Colorado.  Still seems a little toppy.


Wednesday, July 14, 2010

DJIA
open  10,376.56
close 10,366.72 up 3.70
day high 10,400.10
day low 10,303.00
today's volume 208,529,198
3mo avg. daily volume 238,534,782

DJTA
open 4,167.27
close 4,277.42 up 30.42
day high 4,308.77
day low 4,226.08
today's volume 22,846.871
3mo avg.daily volume 24,231,408

Seeming toppy?  Everyone is discussing the impressive Intel numbers, and acknowledging that it made no difference on the markets today.  Despite volume over the last few days, volume was significantly higher than what we'd previously seen... however, looking at the advance/decline volumes, it seems most of those issues were trying to push prices down, not up.  Below is taken from http://finance.yahoo.com/advances.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

DJIA
open  10,216.27
close 10,363.02 up 146.75
day high 10,407.82
day low 10,217.55
today's volume 179,044,031
3mo avg. daily volume 238,612,592

DJTA
open 4,167.27
close 4,247.00 up 82.91
day high 4,266.67
day low 4,167.27
today's volume 22,661,783
3mo avg.daily volume 24,213,018
A few interesting points I'd like to remember taken from Richard Russel today...
The Transport high for the preceding bull market was struck on October 5, 2007 at 4,997.17.  The Industrials high for the preceding bull market was set on October 9, 2007 at 14,164.53.  Will the 2007 High's be breached?  ... or even reached??
Looking at recent charts, I would argue no...  Although my 10,200 number has been breached today, speculation is rampant, earnings reports are ALWAYS massaged (just look at Alcoa), and volume is still way down on the daily.  


from CometGold.com

a guest post from cometgold.com.


Presenting The Wall Of Worry: The 50 Ugliest Facts About The US Economy

Postby Guest » 12 Jul 2010 14:35
Presenting The Wall Of Worry: The 50 Ugliest Facts About The US eCONomy


As we close on another week replete with ugly economic data and the usual bizarro counterintuitive market, here is a summary of the 50 most underreported facts about the state of the US economy, courtesy of the Coto report. After reading these it almost makes sense that the market has become completely desensitized to the sad reality now pervasive in this country. Readers are encouraged to add their own observations to this list. Surely if the list is doubled, the market will go up to 72,000 instead of just 36,000.


#50) In 2010 the U.S. government is projected to issue almost as much new debt as the rest of the governments of the world combined.

#49) It is being projected that the U.S. government will have a budget deficit of approximately 1.6 trillion dollars in 2010.

#48) If you went out and spent one dollar every single second, it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars.

#47) In fact, if y ou spent one million dollars every single day since the birth of Christ, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now.

#46) Total U.S. government debt is now up to 90 percent of gross domestic product.

#45) Total credit market debt in the United States, including government, corporate and personal debt, has reached 360 percent of GDP.

#44) U.S. corporate income tax receipts were down 55% (to $138 billion) for the year ending September 30th, 2009.

#43) There are now 8 counties in the state of California that have unemployment rates of over 20 percent.

#42) In the area around Sacramento, California there is one closed business for every six that are still open.

#41) In February, there were 5.5 unemployed Americans for every job opening.

#40) According to a Pew Research Center study, approximately 37% of all Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 have either been unemployed or underemployed at some point during the recession.

#39) More than 40% of those employed in the United States are now working in low-wage service jobs.

#38) According to one new survey, 24% of American workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year.

#37) Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005.

#36) Mortgage purchase applications in the United States are down nearly 40 percent from a month ago to their lowest level since April of 1997.

#35) RealtyTrac has announced that foreclosure filings in the U.S. established an all time record for the second consecutive year in 2009.

#34) According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in March 2010, an increase of nearly 19 percent from February, an increase of nearly 8 percent from March 2009 and the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005.

#33) In Pinellas and Pasco counties, which include St. Petersburg, Florida and the suburbs to the north, there are 34,000 open foreclosure cases. Ten years ago, there were only about 4,000.

#32) In California’s Central Valley, 1 out of every 16 homes is in some phase of foreclosure.

#31) The Mortgage Bankers Association recently announced that more than 10 percent of all U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment during the January to March time period. That was a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago.

#30) U.S. banks repossessed nearly 258,000 homes nationwide in the first quarter of 2010, a 35 percent jump from the first quarter of 2009.

#29) For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.

#28) More than 24% of all homes with mortgages in the United States were underwater as of the end of 2009.

#27) U.S. commercial property values are down approximately 40 percent since 2007 and currently 18 percent of all office space in the United States is sitting vacant.

#26) Defaults on apartment building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010. That was almost twice the level of a year earlier.

#25) In 2009, U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in private lending since 1942.

#24) New York state has delayed paying bills totalling $2.5 billion as a short-term way of staying solvent but officials are warning that its cash crunch could soon get even worse.

#23) To make up for a projected 2010 budget shortfall of $280 million, Detroit issued $250 million of 20-year municipal notes in March. The bond issuance followed on the heels of a warning from Detroit officials that if its financial state didn’t improve, it could be forced to declare bankruptcy.

#22) The National League of Cities says that municipal governments will probably come up between $56 billion and $83 billion short between now and 2012.

#21) Half a dozen cash-poor U.S. states have announced that they are delaying their tax refund checks.

#20) Two university professors recently calculated that the combined unfunded pension liability for all 50 U.S. states is 3.2 trillion dollars.

#19) According to EconomicPolicyJournal.com, 32 U.S. states have already run out of funds to make unemployment benefit payments and so the federal government has been supplying these states with funds so that they can make their payments to the unemployed.

#18) This most recession has erased 8 million private sector jobs in the United States.

#17) Paychecks from private business shrank to their smallest share of personal income in U.S. history during the first quarter of 2010.

#16) U.S. government-provided benefits (including Social Security, unemployment insurance, food stamps and other programs) rose to a record high during the first three months of 2010.

#15) 39.68 million Americans are now on food stamps, which represents a new all-time record. But things look like they are going to get even worse. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011.

#14) Phoenix, Arizona features an astounding annual car theft rate of 57,000 vehicles and has become the new “Car Theft Capital of the World”.

#13) U.S. law enforcement authorities claim that there are now over 1 million members of criminal gangs inside the country. These 1 million gang members are responsible for up to 80% of the crimes committed in the United States each year.

#12) The U.S. health care system was already facing a shortage of approximately 150,000 doctors in the next decade or so, but thanks to the health care “reform” bill passed by Congress, that number could swell by several hundred thousand more.

#11) According to an analysis by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation the health care “reform” bill will generate $409.2 billion in additional taxes on the American people by 2019.

#10) The Dow Jones Industrial Average just experienced the worst May it has seen since 1940.

#9) In 1950, the ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to the average worker’s paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.

#8) Approximately 40% of all retail spending currently comes from the 20% of American households that have the highest incomes.

#7) According to economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, two-thirds of income increases in the U.S. between 2002 and 2007 went to the wealthiest 1% of all Americans.

#6) The bottom 40 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.

#5) If you only make the minimum payment each and every time, a $6,000 credit card bill can end up costing you over $30,000 (depending on the interest rate).

#4) According to a new report based on U.S. Census Bureau data, only 26 percent of American teens between the ages of 16 and 19 had jobs in late 2009 which represents a record low since statistics began to be kept back in 1948.

#3) According to a National Foundation for Credit Counseling survey, only 58% of those in “Generation Y” pay their monthly bills on time.

#2) During the first quarter of 2010, the total number of loans that are at least three months past due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.

#1) According to the Tax Foundation’s Microsimulation Model, to erase the 2010 U.S. budget deficit, the U.S. Congress would have to multiply each tax rate by 2.4. Thus, the 10 percent rate would be 24 percent, the 15 percent rate would be 36 percent, and the 35 percent rate would have to be 85 percent.
Guest




Monday, July 12, 2010

DJIA
open  10,199.24
close 10,216.27 up 18.24
day high 10,220.28
day low 10,146.49
today's volume 131,487,257
3mo avg. daily volume 238,969,342

DJTA
open 4,160.51
close 4,164.09 up 3.19
day high 4,208.58
day low 4,123.18
today's volume 17,736.859
3mo avg.daily volume 24,213,018
Sorry for missing the site on Friday, as it was date night for me and my wife and heading into the weekend, I really didn't have anything to comment on.  Prices balancing out right at the $10,200 levels with low volume as I estimated from the 1/3rds to 2/3rds correction concept.  As this is what we call "earnings season" the assumption today is that after 3 months of painful trading for the Wall Street bulls, it wouldn't surprise to see a month of growth, however, I stand to my $10,200 figure and although the best "assumptions" suggest increases due to, frankly, terrible news and reports throughout the year, there's got to be a little rebound... but volume says no, the primary trend says no, so we'll see... does manipulation defeat Dow Theory??  Of course it does, on the day to day...

Here's a five day chart on the industrials.  I'm showing a short chart because it seems repetitive with a morning pop, blow off, and slow rise... Again, I can't help but notice volume declining.  The short pops are not enthusiastic and the follow-thru is non-existent.
that's enough for tonight... waiting patiently for this to play out over the next month.
On a final note, I've read mixed thoughts on short funds.  A few considerations against the DJIA, S&P and Real Estate into the future may prove beneficial... and may not.  Something is only worth what it can be sold for, I wonder how interested some will be in the short funds if and when the markets have finished their primary trend... but that is also the nature of markets, that for every seller, there's probably a buyer.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

DJIA
open  10,019.26
close 10,138.99 up 120.71
day high10,139.86
day low 10,032.73
today's volume 192,216,034
3mo avg. daily volume 238,692,577

DJTA
open 4,059.18
close 4,118.05 up 59.43
day high 4,122.96
day low 4,059.18
today's volume 19,527,185
3mo avg.daily volume 4,203,062

Today followed exactly as expected, pop in the morning and an afternoon sell-off.  Interesting late market trading up, and very low volume.  Yesterday saw similar movements but the rise late afternoon showed an impressive trading volume increase in the closing minutes... today did not.
Below, a 3 year Industrials chart, with my beautifully drawn green circles, noting transition periods when the 50 and 200 day averages cross.

The Unimportant Ramblings...
I suffered through some additional CNBC today.  Continued discussion about double bottoms.  Volume, price movements, primary trends, fundamental numbers... unimportant I suppose... I don't know why I watch TV.


"As we have been barking for the past two months, when spring crises are followed by summer rallies that occur without a meaningful change in economic and financial conditions, a more intense crisis tends to resurface in the autumn and stocks deline faster and with a greater magnitude than the summer rally."
- The King Report 07.08.2010

Next week options expire and earnings reports kick off.  I stand by my 10,200 potential secondary trend high on the DJIA.  Today's cooling off of this weeks early "rally" (so to speak) was apparent to more than just me.  I think the markets have some legs left for the next week or so as the options expire a push upwards to cover those positions.  However, average or below average volume screams short term trading manipulation.  I wouldn't be surprised if we close within 20 points either side of our open today.  More to come.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010


DJIA
open  9,736.85
close10,018.28
day high10,026.60
day low 9,736.70
today's volume215,024,170
3mo avg. daily volume 238,175,188

DJTA
open 3,906.29
close 4,058.62
day high 4,062.53
day low 3,905.06
today's volume24,236,378
3mo avg.daily volume 24,142,638
Observations
  • Well lookey here... Dramatic buy in on the rebound, tertiary market trending much?  Perhaps building a small secondary trend upwards, but price movements compared to volume, this was short term trading at it's best.  Any bets I haven't placed may get an opportunity this week.
  • Interesting observation, at about quarter to 4:00p E.T., money.CNN.com lists DJIA daily volume at 143,475,534 and DJTA volume at 16,401,221.  33% of DJIA and 32% of DJTA volume in the last 15 minutes of the day?  Impressive.
  • Over the past 12 months the DJIA and DJTA may as well have been staring in a mirror.  Both markets moved substantially together today.  Avoid the noise and watch the primary trends.  This is a long term push with substantial jockeying.  

Thank you Russell

Richard Russell points out yesterday that the DJIA has closed below previous lows, but the DJTA needs to confirm, and close below $3,792.89 and HAS NOT.  At the time of this writing the transports are up 68 for the morning at $3,974.42.  As I mentioned regarding volume yesterday, what appears to be a building primary bear trend would not deviate due to no significant decrease in volume of late.  However, Russell's the master, and a short term upside reversal does make since due to the industrials and transports not confirming each other recently.  We shall see.  Perhaps I lean too heavily on volume for the secondary trends.  With all said, this authors set for investments for the primary trend, and should a secondary upside reversal prove itself in the near future, I see it only as an opportunity to increase my positions.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

INDU
open  9,689.21
close 9,743.62 up 57.14
day high 9,858.13
day low 9,659.01
today's volume 216,714,005
3mo avg. daily volume 235,746,270
TRAN
open 3,932.40
close 3,906.23 down 26.17
day high 4,021.63
day low 3,872,64
today's volume 24,572,739
3mo avg.daily volume 24,142,638

The markets are rolling over.  After last weeks announcements regarding the 2nd quarter numbers Wednesday and employment numbers Friday followed by President Obama's morning "statements," the indexes responded accordingly last week, as expected.  Today's rally was short lived and immediately sold off.  Volatility was impressive on the hopes and dreams and volume wouldn't exactly promote "dullness" in the markets quite yet.  Although the bobble-heads on MSNBC might be acknowledging that the end is nigh (in the most optimistic way they can muster) I would argue additional volatility at this point.