Friday, July 16, 2010

DJIA
open 10,356.20
close 10,097.90 down 261.41
day high 10,356.20
day low 10,079.58
today's volume 335,057,222
3mo avg. daily volume 238,390,369

DJTA
open 4,255.82
close 4,119.00 down 137.16
day high 4,256.49
day low 4,108.40
today's volume 25,265,505
3mo avg.daily volume 24,095,170

Now this is the type of volume and price moves I'm talking about!!  Although I hate to see these types of reactions, and again I must fall back and let the phrase "if I were a betting man"come pouring out of my mouth, I'd guess for a slight rebound Monday, but to watch the numbers decline next week as well.  Could July test the June lows?  We will see, and there's still 2 weeks left for them to do it in.  The black cross strikes again.

At this point pretty much anything worth talking about relating to industrial manufacturing or consumption, and most major indexes (except the transports of course) have crossed their moving averages as well.  Credit Cards, Natural Resources including industrial metals and oil, and your S&P and Dow indexes (again excluding the transports) have crossed.  BDI has crossed.  Everything is heading down.  The only things that look viable right now are Gold and USD.  The USD even looks oversold at the moment.  Chart below.

It's easy to understand why Russell has been beating the Gold Bullion and USD horse for a while now... it's because that pony's still kickin'.  
The charts right show a 3 year for The USD (top) and Gold (bottom).  Both of which have some drastic changes to make if they expect to show any downwards trending long term.  Short term, sure, that much up movement for that long, especially in Gold, can appear a little scary, but, here's something to think about.  There's no excessive volatility.  Corrections only come when there's something to correct from.  And volatility has been to a minimum... not only is the 200dma a nice straight line, but the 50dma has been also, except for a quick blip back in December last year.  
I may not know if I can trust the USD  right now.  All charting speculation makes the USD look like it's been panting REALLY hard for the last 3 years, but going nowhere.  What I do know is that I'm dead damn sure I cannot trust the Industrials, and soon I think I'll say the same regarding the Transports... and if that's the case, I'll take my chances in intrinsic wealth, gold, for the time being, and maybe leave a little cash for those embarrassing hiccups that the bobble-heads call, "corrections."  It must be hard filling 12 hours a day or more with market commentary.  I feel bad for them.

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