DJIA

open 10,173.05

close 10,040.45 down 133.96

day high 10,173.05

day low 9,991.18

today's volume 223,680,140

3mo avg. daily volume 209,558,701

DJTA

open4,159.04

close 4,082.51 down 78.28

day high 4,159.04

day low 4,027.21

today's volume 20,229,252

3mo avg. daily volume 19,762,126

Market woke up a bit today.  Volume I mean, and especially on the TRAN's as I'm regularly noticing a below-average trend for the past few weeks.  The INDU's did break below the psychological 10,000 mark today, but closes are what matter, and it did regroup towards the end of the day... of course nothing to write home about though as the close took us down another 130 pts.


I remain very bearish.  I find myself turning on CNN or MSNBC more often during the secondary movements than the primary ones.  During the bull of the last year and a half, corrective declines were written off as just that, corrective declines.  During the (arguable) bear we are beginning now and over the past 3 months every corrective rise is hailed with the start of "a resumption of the bull market," and since I don't bother checking on days that coincide with the primary trend, I would assume they are beating the same drum they were previously... which begs the question, "is anyone in the market a realist?"  It seems most are either eternally bullish, or eternally bearish... that's why I like Dow's Theory, let's get realistic here and let the markets speak for themselves.


One thing we are discovering is what I will call the "mega-trend."  I take no credit for coining any phrase as anything said has probably been said before... and in most instances, better... but Dow Theory helps navigate through the primary and occasionally the secondary trends, which tend to last from 1 to 3 years for the primary, and 1 to 3 months for the secondary.  However, what about what appears a mega-trend which seems to be forming since our high in 2007?  Now should our next decline in the INDU's, what the bobble-heads on TV are calling a "double-dip recession" (which I will say, again, that term is the dumbest and most non-confirmed term I've heard in market theory, and is simply an arrogant and over optimistic way to assume that if we have another tumble, that it will be the last one) bring us down to our ultimate bottom in the Dow, followed by a long term recovery, then arguably we are still following the same patterns.  But the mega-trend concept is interesting to me, because bear markets are not supposed to last this long, bulls are.  So perhaps the increase in velocity of information-trade today with computers and GPS and bar-code tracking and cell phones and the like has increased the concept of the markets ability to discount information and over-stimulated the markets into lengthening the time it takes for markets to make the moves they need, because now instead of most people knowing something already... every body does.


Perhaps this is too much though on a Tuesday afternoon... but the times they ARE a changin.'  I don't think even Ole' Richard Russell would disagree with that.


Have a good night.  Normally after a 4.6% decline in a month, I would (gut instinct ONLY) assume a short term rally for a day or two... but with the markets dipping below 10,000 and no bailout money in sight, perhaps Wall Street will "take it's proverbial ball and go home."  I've said it before, watch for the Dow to break below 9,700 and all Hell may break loose.  Bernanke to the rescue??