DJIA

open 10,679.67

close 10,674.98 down 5.45

day high10,679.75

day low10,612.85

today's volume 139,607,108

3mo avg. daily volume 231,956,614

DJTA

open 4,506.25

close 4,491.63 down 15.57

day high 4,506.25

day low4,447.10

today's volume 12,873.267

3mo avg. daily volume 22,581,940

 

Apologies for missing numbers yesterday, although any missive would be as boring as the day before's, and frankly today for that matter.  Declines slightly higher than advances, but not enough to turn heads, and overall volume about as low as it could get.  The markets don't care.  Unemployment numbers out Friday, so we'll see if this lack in continued rise is the discounting of that information.  Where the USD is these days, it would make sense the markets are trying to rise against that too, however, perhaps Wall Street knows something about our unemployment figures that I will have to wait until tomorrow to find out.

This rise is the discounting of the expectations of coming QE2.  If we do not have a cash push next week, will the markets tank forcing the fed's hand?  We shall see, but it is food for thought.

On a personal note...

To pretty much any of you involved out there, I already know who I'm voting for... please stop calling me...

DJIA

open 10,673.92

close 10,636.38 down 38.00

day high 10,676.95

day low 10,600.96

today's volume 164,882,422

3mo avg. daily volume 233,903,971

DJTA

open 4,501.31

close 4,443.48 down 60.82

day high 4,501.31

day low 4,392.03

today's volume 14,052,019

3mo avg. daily volume 23,005,322

 

After yesterdays movements, I'm not surprised to see NO ONE in the markets today.  I am surprised to see the transports take such a dive comparatively to the industrials.  At one point today they were down just over 109 points, or 2.4% of the open.  Still not holding my breath here...

DJIA

open 10,468.82

close 10,674.38 up 208.44

day high 10,692.20

day low 10,468.59

today's volume 167,642,201

3mo avg. daily volume 234,069,632

DJTA

open 4,425.34

close 4,504.30 up 81.36

day high 4,505.97

day low4,425.34

today's volume 17,924.872

3mo avg. daily volume 23,077,711

Today's missive...

I love days like this... Days when someone, who doesn't understand the correlation between volume and pricing wonders why I still have a smug grin on my face.  I hope I'm a bigger man than to rub it in, but up days have half the volume as down days, and in today's case, it even had about half the volume of the 3 month average.  We've seen a few of these days.

If I were a betting man...

So who needs QE if the market continues to rise until elections?  Probably no one.  But there will be something, I'd bet on it.  I'm holding my long positions where they are, but a few things have been tempting me.

The two charts on the left show first, a pro-shares short fund on Lehman's 20+ year treasury, and below it, the US Dollar index.  What I find interesting is that as the dollar has been declining, the TBT has as well.  As we all know, the market has a remarkable way of discounting every piece of information available.  With the USD approaching it's 200dma and the shorts showing no interest whatsoever, on top of a Dow that HAS to stay up through elections, perhaps my QE predictions will prove incorrect... assuming RSI assumptions can defeat common sense predictions.

Volume still argues a decline in the Industrials which should require a bout of QE.  Perhaps short term QE causes a bump up in the USD as it may tinker with overnight rates and cause a short exodus into the wasteland that is the USD.  Hopefully, unlike Moses and his people, some from this generation will survive on more than just mana, and may end up in the promised land that is the bargain-basement liquidation-priced P/E and Q ratio's when no one else is interested.

I'm comfortable in my shorts and my gold positions, but if I were a betting man, I'd play a short term rise in the USD and then load the boat on the shorts coming into the winter.  As long as I have my working cash position, I don't care how long it would take as any good student of The Theory knows duration and extent are never known, just the trend.

I'm off to read Russell's daily, should be good things.  I'm curious to hear what he has to say about today.